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RE: Oil expected to hit $45 in 09
Nymex Crude Future 47.48
Dated Brent Spot 45.56
WTI Cushing Spot 46.96
According to a story on Bloomberg, BP expects oil to continue to drop for the next 12 to 18 months. We could be looking at $25 a barrel in 09.
Looks like 99 cent gas and $1.99 diesel in 2009 if it drops to $25 a barrel.
Sure would like to see diesel drop some more before Christmas. Would like to take the boys on a 9 or 10 day trip out west. We do have stations close to us that are at $2.43 for diesel now.
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jmramiller
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12/02/08 06:45pm |
Tow Vehicles
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RE: Oil expected to hit $45 in 09
Nymex Crude Future 47.48
Dated Brent Spot 45.56
WTI Cushing Spot 46.96
According to a story on Bloomberg, BP expects oil to continue to drop for the next 12 to 18 months. We could be looking at $25 a barrel in 09.
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jmramiller
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12/02/08 03:00pm |
Tow Vehicles
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RE: Oil expected to hit $45 in 09
Cnooc's Fu Chengyu Says Oil Expected at $40 a Barrel, FT Says
By Howard Mustoe
Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Cnooc Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Fu Chengyu said participants at a meeting of national oil companies expect oil to reach $40 per barrel, the Financial Times reported.
The consensus of the conference, held in Beijing, was that prices will fall and most investment projects would be canceled, the newspaper said, citing comments Fu made at a conference in Barcelona.
To contact the reporter on this story: Howard Mustoe in London at hmustoe@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: November 18, 2008 19:17 EST
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jmramiller
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11/18/08 08:53pm |
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RE: Oil expected to hit $45 in 09
Dated Brent Spot is at $49.84 - must be getting close to 09.
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jmramiller
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11/17/08 07:48pm |
Tow Vehicles
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RE: The Chrysler/GM Merger may not happen
You can blame the UAW for the troubles both have,you cant give the bennies they were gettting and stay in buisness.
If you don't have a clue of what you are talking about do yourself a favor and don't post...bennies just what bennies are you spouting off about?
My medical has been slashed back to what my Dad had back in the 70's. No Doctors office calls, no lab work, dental doesn't cover half what it did ten+ years ago when I started with Chrysler. Vision every three years, hearing every two years.
Work rules have changed to help the company, No that's right No Raises at all the life of this contract (we do get a lump sum payment of $1,500.00 each year).
Before you open your mouth yes we have sub pay and after 46 weeks you go into the job bank. Both have been funded from the 70's (sub) and 80's (job bank) and the monies have been invested by a third party so neither the Company or the Union could get their greedy little hands on it. My sub pay is based on 95% on my take home pay and doesn't cost Chrysler one red dime out of their pocket. The same goes for the Job Bank, payments come out of the fund not Chrysler.
Here I'll say this again so maybe this time it will sink in.
Neither the UAW nor the Employees have any control over how the Companies are run. Neither the UAW nor the Employees have any control over what we build Management does.
The Gods up in Auburn Hills for Chrysler (Dearborn for Ford and Detroit for GM) with their 6+ years of collage and their eleven figure incomes decided to keep building gas guzzling SUV’s and cars that only make 17 MPG highway. Why because they were cash cows with profit margins of up to $15,000.00 per unit on some and $10,000.00 minimum. That way they could give their selves multi Million dollar bonuses every six months.
Stop blaming this on the Union, the UAW of the 50’s, 60’s, and 70’s is long long long gone. The UAW is working with the Company every step of the way to try and keep all three alive. We have given them the right to hire new workers at $14.50 per hour with reduced “bennies” and relaxed the work rules. Now the company can move a worker if they need him/her somewhere else in the plant were before the company had to bring in people to cover a job. I could go on but I sure hope you are getting the point here, Management is the one who is at the helm of the ship not the Union.
Don
I tried to stay out of this one guys….I really really did.
Looks like you guys have finally joined the real world. About time.
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jmramiller
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11/01/08 08:32am |
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RE: May be profitable for GM after all
Doesn't Ford own the dodge diesel engine rights?
NO!
Cummins FAQ
From Cummins website "Does Ford own Cummins?
No, Ford does not own any part of Cummins Inc."
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jmramiller
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10/28/08 09:50pm |
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RE: 2008 Chevy 2500HD Duramax
If it's a crew cab long bed LTZ, then I would get it.
For comparison, I just picked up a New '08 Mega Cab Cummins dually SLT with goodies for $34500.
Mav
When did you buy your MC? Dodge dealer here is advertising 50% off MSRP on all HD trucks. That should put a top of the line 3500 MC well under $30K.
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jmramiller
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10/28/08 09:35pm |
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RE: GM buying Chrysler? IS THIS AN APRIL 1ST JOKE?
Cerberus is the one waiting for a better offer. GM just wants funds, and right now.
And you believe Dan?
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jmramiller
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10/26/08 11:02pm |
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RE: GM buying Chrysler? IS THIS AN APRIL 1ST JOKE?
travelnut, GM is bleeding cash faster than a stuck pig and only wants Chrysler's funds to stay afloat for a few more months possibly.
I think some of you are missing a very important point here. The fact is cerberus wants the rest of GMAC Financial more than GM wants Chrysler, otherwise this deal would be done. If Chrysler had so much cash laying around Cerberus would be milking them like a cow. I would be willing to bet that GM is holding out for Chrysler and more cash to boot before they let go of the rest of GMAC Financial. The other road block may be that Cerberus want to keep Chrysler Financial - link
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jmramiller
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10/26/08 04:40pm |
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RE: Oil expected to hit $45 in 09
The reason oil drops on the news of quota reductions is that no one in the industry believes it.
Google 'OPEC quota cheat' and you will find pages of data on cheating(pretty well all the time)
If they ever make good on the reductions then the price will stabilize.I would also point out that OPEC represents less than half the worlds producers,either 40% of the producers or production I forget which.
Not to mention the fact that the amount they are cutting back (about 5%) is oil that would not be sold at current prices anyway. World useage (of oil sold on the open market) has dropped by way more than 5%. So instead of producing the oil and placing it in storage, they will cut back on a little bit of labor. In order to make a significant impact they would need to cut production by 30% - 40%, something they are not going to do because they can't afford to.
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jmramiller
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10/25/08 07:38am |
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RE: Oil expected to hit $45 in 09
OPEC had an emergency meeting this am. They slashed oil production by 1.5 billion barrels a day in an effort to stop the price of gas/diesel from dropping anymore. We are puppets on a string!
Oil Options at $50 Soar After OPEC Cut Fails to Support Prices
By Alexander Kwiatkowski
Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Oil options contracts to sell crude at $50 by December almost tripled today after an OPEC decision to slash production failed to allay concerns that the global economic slump is hurting demand.
``It certainly seems to me that we could get down to $50 a barrel,'' Adam Sieminski, Deutsche Bank's chief energy economist, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview today. ``You could look at the OPEC cut as a sign of weakness, not strength.''
The cost of the option jumped on speculation that an output cut announced today by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which supplies about 40 percent of the world's oil, won't be enough to stem plunging prices.
OPEC decided at its Vienna headquarters today to lower the production quota for 11 of its members by 1.5 million barrels a day, to 27.308 million barrels a day, starting from Nov. 1.
Crude oil futures for December delivery dropped as much as $5.19, or 7.7 percent, to $62.65 a barrel in electronic trading on Nymex, and traded at $64.51 a barrel at 9:59 a.m. local time.
The price of crude has tumbled 56 percent since rising to a record $147.27 a barrel in New York on July 11.
Speculators can profit from the rising value of put options by selling the options themselves back into the market. Alternatively, if crude futures fall below the $50-a-barrel ``strike'' price, holders of the put options can exercise their right to sell futures at $50, and then buy the futures back for less in the market, making a profit.
The Nymex options contracts are for 1,000 barrels each, as are the underlying futures contracts. On Oct. 3, the $50 December put option was valued at 1 cent a barrel, or $10 for the 1,000-barrel lot.
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jmramiller
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10/24/08 09:43pm |
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RE: Oil expected to hit $45 in 09
With gas at $4 and diesel at $5, diesel is 25% higher than gas, not 20%. $1 is 25% of $4. An earlier poster said 20%. The percentage difference might matter if both gas and diesel vehicles were both used exactly the same way.
You are absolutely right. I personally never paid more than $4.80 for diesel but several times did pay $4 for gas. So at those numbers diesel is a 20% premium.
Right now I can buy gas for $2 and diesel for $3. That is a 50% premium.
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jmramiller
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10/24/08 02:49pm |
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RE: Oil expected to hit $45 in 09
That's it, when oil goes all the way to $45 - I'm selling!
I know that sounds funny but I believe that is the new mindset. We have become a society more concerned with statistics and percentages than the bottom line. For me the bottom line is I like to camp. It does not matter if diesel is $3 and gas is 50cents, I need my diesel to pull the trailer and if I did not give that up at $5 I sure aint giving it up at $3. But there will be many who say they can not justify a 50% or 60% premium for diesel so they will sell the diesel and the big 5er and turn around and buy a smaller truck and a smaller camper. In the process they will take a financial bath that would have bought a lifetime of diesel. But at least now they are paying less at the pump.
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jmramiller
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10/24/08 05:38am |
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RE: Oil expected to hit $45 in 09
If you believe that, I have some Ocean Front Property in Texas to sell. OPEC and oil producers can control the price of crude by adjusting production. OPEC just reduced their output by 1.5 million barrels. Oil producers in the US will cut back on oil exploration and opening/stripping old wells due to the decrease in oil prices. I figure that the price of oil will go up to around $90 a barrel, fueled by Speculators an Wall Street. They have nothing to worry about, when they are in over their little pointed heads the American Public will bail them out again, courtesy of our folks in Washington.
This is almost the exact same response I got when Oil was over $100 and I started a thread saying that oil could reach $80. You are correct when you say that "OPEC just reduced their output by 1.5 million barrels". But what happened? Oil has continued to fall. In the last few hours alone Dated Brent Spot has lost almost $6 and Futures have lost almost $5. The cuts are not working.
The fact of the matter is OPEC does not control the price of oil. This is more true now than it ever has been before. OPEC can not afford a deep prolonged cut in oil production because they have set budgets based not only on high prices but also on high output. If the economy continues its downward spiral we have not yet come anywhere near the decrease in consumption that we will see when we are deep in a recession.
In the end OPEC will have to come to the realization that if they are going to again get the world community to increase its consumption they are going to have to make their money by selling more oil at cheaper prices.
Remember it was less than four years ago that oil was $45. It is so funny how people have become so conditioned to think that that was a lifetime ago and that those prices are no longer attainable.
If in fact OPEC did control the price of oil, we would still be paying $147 for oil. Guess what? WE AINT.
From Bloomberg.com
Oil May Fall Amid Doubts OPEC Can Bolster Prices, Survey Shows
By Mark Shenk
Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may decline next week on signs OPEC output cuts may be insufficient to support prices because of the global financial crisis.
Eleven of 27 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 41 percent, said prices will decrease through Oct. 31. Eight respondents, or 30 percent, said oil will rise and eight forecast little change. Last week 39 percent expected futures to decline.
Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have a ``consensus'' on cutting supply and will decide the amount today, Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez told reporters yesterday in Vienna. OPEC is concerned that slowing economies will consume less fuel, sending prices lower.
There's ``no reason to think any bottom, even a temporary one, is at hand,'' said Ric Navy, a broker at BNP Paribas SA in New York. The ``OPEC meeting may keep sellers a tad nervous, but they will find their convictions and sell again.''
Crude oil for December delivery fell $4.29, or 5.9 percent, to $67.84 a barrel so far this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $65.90 a barrel yesterday, the lowest intraday price since June 13, 2007. Prices have dropped 54 percent from the record $147.27 a barrel reached on July 11.
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jmramiller
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10/24/08 04:20am |
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Oil expected to hit $45 in 09
$45 Oil in 09
Interesting article. I assume the fuel prices mentioned are the national average of all grades as we are already seeing some stations in the Fort Worth are nearing $2/gal gas and $3/gal diesel.
On a side note, it seems to me that as fuel is getting cheaper the percentage spread between gas and diesel seems to be getting even more significant. Gas at $4/gal and diesel at $5/gal equates to a 20% premium for diesel, a difference that can be overcome by many in the better fuel mileage of the diesel. Now with prices approaching those I mentioned above we are talking about a 36% premium for diesel. We may see more people dumping diesels now than we did at higher fuel prices. I for one have to have the diesel to pull my trailer but that is still not the case for many diesel owners. My prediction is fewer and fewer diesels leaving the dealer lots and more and more used diesels on the market.
If you are in the market for a new diesel, I just got an email from the local Dodge dealer offering more than 50% off of MSRP.
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jmramiller
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10/24/08 03:47am |
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RE: CASH DISCOUNT for Diesel fuel.
I am not a OTR Driver, but I think the "Credit" is for something like the Fuelman card that Companies charge and pay after the delivery. Different than our Mastercard or Visa. I do know that in many cases there is a 3% charge by the credit card companies per transaction. When fuel was cheep, fuel stations ate the difference, but when the price gets to triple digits and for the big rigs, almost four, 3% really adds up.
That is why there is a big push in congress right now to force the credit card companies to move to a standard fee per transaction instead of a percentage of the transaction. From a station owners point of view his profit on a gallon of fuel has not increased as significantly as the price of fuel, but the fee from the credit card company has increased at the same rate as fuel. When fuel was $1/gal the CC got $.03/gal, at $4/gal the CC was getting $.12/gal. Because the owner was still getting about the same actual profit regardless of how much fuel was per gallon, he had to eat the additional $.09/gal in order to stay competitive with the guy down the street.
A friend of mine who owns a station told me that he stopped taking AMEX who charges 5% because on many fuel sales he would actually lose money. The only way he would make any money on those customers is if they came in and bought something in the store.
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jmramiller
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10/23/08 05:43am |
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RE: Reports: Chrysler, GM discuss merger,
Looks like GM also spoke with Ford.
Link
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jmramiller
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10/11/08 08:18pm |
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RE: Reports: Chrysler, GM discuss merger,
YTD (Jan-Sep 08)Truck sales (1,495,880 units)
GM 36.71% (549,197 units)
Ford 29.91% (447,513 units)
Toyota 15.53% (232,339 units)
Dodge 13.10% (196,058 units)
Nissan 4.73% (70,773 units)
At least Nissan is keeping Dodge off the bottom.
I could see GM keeping the cummins around for MDT applications but the new technology GM and others are working on will be the power plants for the LDTs.
Not sure where you get your numbers, but Toyota hasn't sold that many Tundras. I guess you combined the Tacoma numbers into the Toyota truck total, but failed to combine the Dakota numbers into the Dodge trucks. Using that method, you would have to combine all light trucks together to get a fair comparison.
Here are the ACTUAL year to date numbers for specific trucks from www.pickuptruck.com ..
"Ford F-Series
392,698 -26.9% YTD
September 2008: 32,727
September 2007: 56,065
Chevrolet Silverado
370,502 -22.5% YTD
September 2008: 50,428
September 2007: 52,480
Dodge Ram
196,058 -29.0% YTD
September 2008: 20,812
September 2007: 30,100
GMC Sierra
133,811 -14.9% YTD
September 2008: 18,744
September 2007: 18,445
Toyota Tacoma
117,313 -13.4% YTD
September 2008: 9,176
September 2007: 13,996
Toyota Tundra
115,026 -20.4% YTD
September 2008: 7,696
September 2007: 19,571
Ford Ranger
54,815 -4.6% YTD
September 2008: 3,915
September 2007: 4,019
Chevrolet Colorado
44,884 -24.2% YTD
September 2008: 3,359
September 2007: 5,598
Nissan Frontier
40,873 -19.4% YTD
September 2008: 1,534
September 2007: 5,480
Nissan Titan
29,900 -41.3% YTD
September 2008: 2,872
September 2007: 5,193"
You will note that the Dodge Ram is still a strong seller in 3rd place behind the Ford and Chevy trucks. The GMC sierra is over 60,000 units Behind the Dodge.
My suggestion to use the GMC was for looks alone, and not based on sales numbers. I personally find the current Chevy truck front hideous, and find the GMC version more visually appealing. But perhaps GM would be wise to keep the Silverado I don't know. I always thought the only reason the Chevy out sold the GMC was due to lower prices and the Chevy name. I feel if you put the GMC body work on the Chevy, it would still sell well, and maybe even better. But that's just speculation on my part.
Another important note is that the current Dodge 4500/5500 trucks are selling well and even took Ford's top spot in that market for a few months. GM doesn't even compete in that market at all. Again this would show that using the Dodge trucks as the work/utility type line would be a wise move.
Looks like I get my numbers from the same place you do. The only difference appears to be that I know how to add. Get your calculator out and add up all of the trucks on the list made by each maker and you will get the exact numbers in my post. I am sorry that your beloved truck is on its way to the boneyard but that's life. BTW in response to your previous post, my current truck is the first chevy I have ever owned. If Ford ever gets its act together with a decent engine I'm headed back that way. After recently driving a new Dodge my friend was looking at I can not imagine any circumstance under which I would actually pay money for one. Friend bought a Ford. There was no comparison between the two trucks. The dealerships actually were on either side of the road. Friend asked the Dodge salesman if he could park the trucks side by side to compare them. The dodge guy just turned and walked away with his tail between his legs. It was really sad.
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jmramiller
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10/11/08 05:23pm |
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RE: Reports: Chrysler, GM discuss merger,
YTD (Jan-Sep 08)Truck sales (1,495,880 units)
GM 36.71% (549,197 units)
Ford 29.91% (447,513 units)
Toyota 15.53% (232,339 units)
Dodge 13.10% (196,058 units)
Nissan 4.73% (70,773 units)
At least Nissan is keeping Dodge off the bottom.
I could see GM keeping the cummins around for MDT applications but the new technology GM and others are working on will be the power plants for the LDTs.
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jmramiller
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10/11/08 12:09pm |
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RE: Reports: Chrysler, GM discuss merger,
I'd rather diehard in my Dodge than have a stroke in a Chevy :B
:@ I believe Ford makes the Stroker.;)
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jmramiller
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10/11/08 11:48am |
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